São Paulo – In January, in a referendum, the people of Sudan approved its division and the establishment of a new country: Southern Sudan. The name is provisional and the nation will only come into existence as of July 9th. The country will be born poor, but will inherit 75% of its northern neighbour’s oil reserves, which will for 98% of its revenues.
What to expect of a nation with precarious infrastructure, few roads, frail public institutions and only 27% of literate adults? "Opportunities," says the African economy specialist and coordinator of the International Economics course at the Pontifical Catholic University (PUC, in the Portuguese acronym) of the city of Barueri, Antônio Carlos Alves dos Santos.
More than opportunities, the new country has challenges ahead. "Depending on one single source of revenue (petroleum) could lead to problems and conflicts. The stage of development of Southern Sudan is an early one, it is as though it is starting from near-scratch," claims Antonio Carlos.
Aside from oil (which the country will have to ship to its neighbouring nation), Southern Sudan has cattle, fertile lands and is rich in iron ore. The country counts on the of the World Bank and the Bank of Africa, which will loan funds for the building of infrastructure.
The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have promised to take their private initiative to Southern Sudan. Construction work and money-making opportunities are plenty. Out of a total of 8.2 million people, 80% have no access to drinking water and 83% live in rural areas. The roads are precarious.
Bilateral trade relations between Brazil and Sudan have room for growth. In January and February, when revenues from Brazilian exports to the Arab countries reached US$ 2.02 billion, Sudan ed for a 1% share. Sugar and wheat were the main items shipped. Even though trade relations between the countries are small, Antônio Carlos believes that the new country offers opportunities to Brazil as well. "Brazil is aiming to be an international player and it is in its interest to take part in the construction of this country, as it is already doing in other African nations," he claims.
The secretary general of the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, Michel Alaby, underscores, however, that the existing Brazilian business with Sudan is important. "Sudan exports 99% of the ethanol shipped to Europe. It has a world-class ethanol plant. There are Brazilian enterprises planting soy and cotton there as well," he says, referring to the Pinesso Group, based in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul.
But Alaby stresses that the task of entering the country now being formed will not be easy. He cites two reasons: the first challenge is to face the competition of countries that are already strongly active in Sudan: Malaysia, India, Turkey and China. He believes that these nations should exert their influence on the Southern neighbour. The second issue is the country’s religious and tribal division. "It is hard to manage the tribes, the Muslim North and the Christian South. All of that represents a challenge. The country must be entered through its Northern portion," he claims.
History
The referendum held in January resulted from a peace agreement signed in 2005 that put an end to two decades-plus of civil war between North and South. The two regions boast major ethnical and religious differences. Whereas the northern population is predominantly Arab and Muslim, the Southern people are mostly Christians, but from different tribes.
According to Antonio Carlos, of the PUC in Barueri, one of the many challenges facing the governor of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir, is to run all of the territories. "Sudan is a tribal region and the central government does not hold sway over all the tribes," he declares. The ethnical and religious crisis, however, should not repeat itself in the new state. "Culturally speaking, it is a homogeneous nation, and that helps," he says.
*Translated by Gabriel Pomerancblum
